What Were the Actual Odds for Every NBA Team in the 2019 Season?

I remember sitting in my living room during the 2019 NBA season, crunching numbers while watching highlights of Iran's national team player Amini dominating against Chinese Taipei. That particular game stuck with me - Amini dropping 30 points and grabbing 11 rebounds while igniting that incredible 17-5 run in the fourth quarter. It made me think about how probability and momentum work in basketball, and how the actual odds for NBA teams that season told some fascinating stories that statistics alone couldn't capture.

Let me take you back to that season, where the Golden State Warriors entered as overwhelming favorites with what many analysts pegged at around 35% championship probability before the playoffs began. I've always been fascinated by how preseason predictions play out, and honestly, I thought those odds were a bit generous given their aging roster and the rising competition. The Toronto Raptors, meanwhile, started with roughly 8-10% championship odds according to most sportsbooks, which felt about right to me at the time. What made their eventual victory so compelling was how they defied expectations - much like how Amini's fourth-quarter performance turned what seemed like a certain defeat into a tied game at 69 with three minutes remaining. That's the beauty of sports - the numbers give us a framework, but the human element always finds ways to surprise us.

The Milwaukee Bucks had one of the more interesting probability arcs that season. They began with championship odds around 12-15%, which gradually improved as Giannis Antetokounmpo continued his MVP-caliber season. By playoff time, their championship probability had jumped to about 25% in most models. I remember arguing with friends that the Bucks were being undervalued - their defensive efficiency numbers were historically good, and they played with a consistency that reminded me of those Spurs championship teams. The Houston Rockets presented another fascinating case, starting with roughly 8% championship odds that fluctuated throughout the season. James Harden's historic scoring run actually improved their odds to nearly 15% at one point, though I always felt their style wasn't sustainable for playoff basketball.

What really stood out to me were the dark horse teams. The Portland Trail Blazers began with championship odds below 3% but managed to reach the Western Conference Finals. Their journey reminded me of how Amini's individual brilliance can shift momentum - Damian Lillard's iconic buzzer-beater against Oklahoma City was one of those moments that completely reset a team's probability of success. The Philadelphia 76ers represented another intriguing probability story, starting with about 12% championship odds that never quite materialized into what their "Process" promised. I've always been skeptical of teams built primarily through tanking, and their playoff performance against Toronto only reinforced my belief that chemistry matters more than raw talent.

The middle-tier teams told their own probability stories. The Utah Jazz hovered around 4-6% championship odds all season, while the Denver Nuggets quietly built from 3% preseason odds to nearly 10% by playoff time. What fascinated me about these teams was how their probabilities reflected their steady, methodical approaches - no dramatic swings, just consistent improvement. This contrasts sharply with teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, whose championship odds swung wildly from 15% preseason to below 2% after LeBron's groin injury, then back up when he returned. I've never been a fan of teams that rely so heavily on one player - it makes their probability too volatile, too dependent on health.

The underdog stories really captured my imagination. The Brooklyn Nets began with championship odds below 1% but managed to make the playoffs and even win a game against the 76ers. The Sacramento Kings, with similar minuscule odds, actually remained in playoff contention until late in the season. These teams demonstrated how quickly probabilities can change in the NBA - a couple of smart moves, some player development, and suddenly you're competing. It's similar to how Amini's fourth-quarter explosion changed the entire complexion of that game against Chinese Taipei - momentum shifts can happen faster than we expect.

Looking back, what strikes me most about the 2019 season's probabilities is how they reflected both mathematical reality and human unpredictability. The Raptors' championship probability never exceeded 30% even during the Finals, yet they won. The Warriors, despite their talent, faced probability-defying injuries at the worst possible time. This reminds me why I love basketball - the numbers give us a framework, but they can't account for human will, for moments of individual brilliance like Amini's 30-point performance, for the unpredictable nature of competition. The actual odds told one story, but the games wrote another, and that tension is what keeps me coming back season after season, calculator in one hand, remote in the other, always ready to be surprised.